Iraq attacks threaten stability claims – analyst
BAGHDAD / IraqiNews.com: There is clearly a sense that violence in Iraq has been on the increase since the American troops pulled out of urban centers at the end of June, according to BBC Arab affairs analyst Magdi Abdelhadi. “But it is still not as high as it used to be three years ago, when the country appeared to be on the brink of an all-out sectarian war,” Magdi Abdelhadi said. “The frequency of the recent attacks – and the fact that the latest blasts hit the heart of government in central Baghdad, will raise questions about the competence of the Iraqi security services as well as the motives,” he said. “Whether it is primarily sectarian or not, the apparent aim of the violence has almost always been to destabilize Iraq and show that the government is losing control,” he added. “This view appears to be even more plausible now as Iraqi politicians have begun preparing for forthcoming parliamentary elections due early next year.” “Increased violence could in theory make it difficult for parties in the current governing coalition to claim that they have made Iraq safe again,” the analyst noted. “This has led some analysts to conclude that those behind the recent attacks are not only the usual suspects – al-Qaeda or former Baathists – but also political players who want scupper Prime Minister Nouri Maliki’s hopes for another electoral victory,” he continued. He voiced belief that if the current level of violence persists or, worse still, escalates, and American troops are called upon to intervene, this could seriously undermine claims that Iraq was on the right track to genuine independence. Continued or increased violence could also easily increase the risk of wider regional troubles, with Iraq’s neighbors backing one group against its rivals to ensure an outcome favorable to their national interests. Iraq and Washington had agreed that all American troops will have withdrawn by the end of 2011. “Should continued violence force a change to those plans, this would be a serious blow to US President Barack Obama, who has made orderly military disengagement from Iraq one of his top foreign policy priorities,” he explained. SH (S)/SR 1